Marion County’s Housing Market: The Quiet Central Ohio Underdog Finally Waking Up

Author’s Note: Portions of the narrative in this article were drafted with assistance from ChatGPT. All data analysis, datasets, calculations, and insights were personally produced by Pioneer Data Analytics.

If you only watched Columbus headlines, you’d think Central Ohio real estate is basically Delaware County, New Albany, Intel, and nothing else. But here’s the twist: Marion County is quietly putting up numbers that deserve way more attention, and the data shows a market moving out of its “flat and forgotten” phase and into something way more interesting.

The latest ZHVI Anomaly Insights report for Central Ohio gives us the receipts. Spoiler: Marion County isn’t just humming — it’s hitting the right notes in all the places that matter for long-term affordability and upside potential.

A stunning view of the historic Marion Ohio Palace Theatre, showcasing its intricate architecture and iconic marquee under a clear blue sky.

A Market That’s Waking Up — Slowly, but Consistently

On the top of the report (page 1), Marion County shows:

• Median ZHVI (Sep 2025): $200,131

• 3-month moving median: $198,171

• Difference from trend: +$1,960

• % above trend: +0.98%

That “~1% above trend” may look tiny next to hot markets like Caledonia or Prospect (both sitting in the 1.8–1.9% anomaly zone), but here’s the thing:

➡️ Marion County isn’t overheating — it’s stabilizing.

➡️ And stable markets in a region with surging population pressure are exactly where the next wave of buyers goes.

When you zoom into the city-level details on page 1?Marion (the city) itself is punching slightly above its trend too — +1.23% above its moving median. Not explosive. But consistent. And consistency is what pushes a market from “cheap” to “undervalued,” and eventually from “undervalued” to “in demand.”

What’s Causing the Shift? Follow the Population Breadcrumbs

Marion County isn’t booming population-wise — and that’s exactly why the housing trend is interesting.

Central Ohio’s inner-ring counties (Delaware, Union, Licking, Fairfield) are swelling at some of the fastest rates in the Midwest. That population pressure doesn’t stay contained.

Eventually, buyers who:

• commute to Columbus

• work remotely

• want more space

• want affordability

• want to escape metro bidding wars

  
  

…start looking to places like Marion County. And why Marion specifically?

1. It’s still legitimately affordable.

Homes are sitting around $200K, while Central Ohio’s typical ZHVI is well north of $300K. That gap is widening. People notice.

2. It’s close enough to Columbus to be realistic.

Commute? Manageable.Remote work? Easy.Access to metro amenities without metro taxes? Chef’s kiss.

3. Price stability + low volatility = investor bait.

Marion County’s trend line on the ZHVI charts (page 1, middle panel) is smooth compared to the roller-coaster counties. Less noise = easier to project returns.

4. Migration patterns are pushing outward.

Columbus’s growth is creating a suburban “push” effect — and Marion sits along that outer wave.

Zooming Into the Cities & Zips: Who’s Actually Winning?

Page 1 lists the city leaders, and this is where Marion County starts to look surprisingly dynamic.

Top performers (City level):

• Prospect: +1.79% above trend

• Caledonia: +1.89% above trend

• Morral: +1.34% above trend

  
  

These small communities are basically blinking neon signs saying:

“We’re affordable, we’re steady, and people are finally noticing.”

On the flip side:

Lower anomaly areas:

• New Bloomington: +0.53%

• Waldo: +1.13%

• Green Camp: +1.19%

  
  

Even the “low end” is still positive — nobody is below zero. That’s a signal of broad-based county-wide stability, not a fragile market dependent on a single town.

The Real Play: Marion County Is Becoming the Next Affordability Valve

Here’s the larger story: Columbus is growing whether we like it or not. The region is adding people, employers, and wages. But not everyone wants or can afford Columbus pricing. That creates a spillover market, and Marion County sits directly in the pathway.

The data in your ZHVI anomaly report hints at an early-stage version of what we’ve already seen in:

• Lancaster (10 years ago)

• Newark (7–8 years ago — before Intel)

• Marysville & Plain City (5 years ago)

• Chillicothe (starting now)

These places were once the “low-cost outer-ring option,” and then boom — they weren’t. Marion County is now lining up for that role.

Population + Pricing = A Slow Burn Opportunity

Let’s connect it cleanly:

• Population growth in Central Ohio is accelerating.

• Marion County isn’t growing fast, but it’s not shrinking anymore either.

• Housing prices are rising without overheating.

• The city of Marion itself is exceeding trend.

• Surrounding towns (Prospect, Caledonia) are quietly overperforming.

  
  

Put all that together and the equation looks like this:

Slow population growth + steady price growth = undervalued market with upside.

If Central Ohio adds 500K–1M people by 2050 (which all regional forecasts say it will), Marion County is one of the few counties with:

• Inventory

• Land

• Price stability

• Entry-level affordability

…to catch some of the overflow. That’s the “why now” behind this data.

Who Should Pay Attention?

1. First-time buyers

Marion County is one of the last pockets in Central Ohio where:

• you can buy under $225K

• AND not move into a declining market

That’s huge.

2. Investors

You’re looking at:

• low volatility

• cash-flow-friendly buy-in prices

• early-stage appreciation potential

Prospect and Caledonia should be on every investor’s radar.

3. Developers

The big boys aren’t here yet. They will be.

Final Take: Marion County Is Quiet Now… But Not for Long

Marion County isn’t blowing up social feeds or landing in flashy real estate rankings, but the data is telling a very different story.

This is a county that has:

• stabilized

• started pricing above trend

• shown broad-based strength across cities and zips

• sits directly in the path of regional population pressure

It’s not the next Delaware County.

It’s more like the next Lancaster — slow and steady until suddenly everyone realizes what they missed.

And the people who get in before that realization? Yeah… they’re usually the ones smiling.

Aerial view of the picturesque, sprawling farmlands and wooded areas surrounding Marion, OH, prompting reflections on its potential resurgence as a historical hub in the state.

📊 Data Sources Used in the Central Ohio Market Intelligence Report

The insights in this report are built on three core data pillars: Population, Affordability, and Home Values. Each source was selected for accuracy, consistency, and the ability to reflect the full Central Ohio housing landscape — not just listings or recent sales.

Below is a breakdown of the exact datasets powering the analysis.

1. MORPC Population Estimates & Regional Forecasts

Source: Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC)Data Type: County-level population estimates, growth rates, and regional demographic trendsWhy We Use It: MORPC is the most trusted regional population authority for Central Ohio. Their modeling captures migration, births, deaths, and commuting patterns with a local lens that national data often misses. MORPC provides:

• Annual population estimates

• County-by-county growth trends

• Multi-year and long-range forecasts

• Regional economic and mobility indicators

This data forms the backbone of our population growth, migration, and regional dynamics analysis.

2. U.S. Census Bureau & American Community Survey (ACS)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau — Decennial Census & ACS 1-year/5-year datasetsData Type: Income, household characteristics, age distribution, commute patterns, socioeconomic statisticsWhy We Use It:Census/ACS data delivers the most comprehensive and verified demographic and economic metrics available. While slower to update, it provides:

• Median household income

• Poverty and workforce statistics

• Homeownership rates

• Commuting patterns

• Household composition

This data is critical for affordability studies, income-to-price ratios, and long-term trend validation.

3. Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)

Source: Zillow Research – ZHVI (Zillow Home Value Index)Data Type: Estimated median home values across counties, cities, ZIP codes, and neighborhoodsWhy We Use It:ZHVI is the best dataset for capturing total market value, not just homes that happen to sell. Zillow’s valuations incorporate:

• Off-market homes

• Recent sales

• Listing data

• Historical patterns

• Machine learning valuation models

Over the past decade, ZHVI has become a stable, comprehensive indicator that reflects every home in the housing stock, not just recent transactions. This makes it a powerful tool for analyzing:

• Home value appreciation

• County and city-level trends

• Affordability changes over time

• Housing supply pressure

ZHVI is used to compute price trends, anomalies, and comparisons across Central Ohio.

Why These Sources Matter Together

Using these datasets in combination gives a 360° view of the regional housing ecosystem:

• MORPC → Who is moving in, out, and where growth is happening

• Census/ACS → How households are earning, living, and commuting

• Zillow ZHVI → What homes are worth across the entire market

  
  

This triangulation ensures the analysis isn’t biased by low transaction volume, missing listings, or outdated demographic info. It also provides consistency across counties of all sizes — from fast-growth hubs like Delaware County to smaller markets like Marion, Madison, and Perry.