4 Surprising Real Estate Trends Uncovered in Central Ohio

Jeffrey Simmons
11 hours ago
4 min read

The Hidden Story in the Housing Market

Anyone watching the Columbus skyline can see the growth, but what's the real story in the housing markets of surrounding towns like Caledonia or New Straitsville? It's a question on the mind of nearly every homeowner and prospective buyer. We often hear broad statements about regional market performance, but these high-level summaries can mask the complex and varied stories unfolding street by street.

A recent data analysis peels back the layers of Central Ohio's housing market, revealing a much more nuanced picture. By examining Zillow's Home Value Index (ZHVI) for 15 counties, we can compare current home values against a 3-month moving median. This method serves as a powerful market velocity metric—it cuts through the noise of normal monthly volatility to spot emerging acceleration or deceleration in local markets. The results are a set of counter-intuitive takeaways that challenge common assumptions.

This post will break down the top four surprising findings from the data. Whether you're thinking of buying, selling, or simply watching the market, these insights reveal where the real momentum is—and where it isn't—across Central Ohio right now.

Click the image below to start digging into the dashboard

Four Surprising Takeaways from Central Ohio's Real Estate Data

Real estate is hyper-local—your county's trend isn't your town's story.

The most critical principle in real estate is that all markets are local, and this analysis proves just how "hyper-local" they can be. Even within the same region, market conditions can swing dramatically from one community to the next. This contrast is starkly illustrated by comparing two communities at opposite ends of the performance spectrum.

The small village of New Plymouth in Vinton County is showing strong positive momentum, with home values rising 2.20% above its 3-month moving median. In stark contrast, New Straitsville in neighboring Perry County is trending downward, with values dipping -2.55% below its recent median—a significant indicator of a cool-down that we will explore later. This level of granular detail is crucial for both buyers and sellers, as the difference between a hot market and a cooling one can be just a few miles down the road. This dramatic local variation isn't random; in fact, the data reveals a distinct pattern where the biggest percentage gains are happening far from the urban core.

The biggest percentage gains are happening in smaller communities.

When we think of real estate growth, major metropolitan centers often come to mind. However, the data reveals that the most significant upward trends, measured by percentage growth, are currently happening in Central Ohio's smaller, more rural towns. This indicates that demand and value are accelerating in areas outside the primary urban core.

The top three communities showing the highest percentage increase in home values compared to their recent moving median are:

New Plymouth (Vinton County): +2.20%
Tarlton (Pickaway/Fairfield County): +2.13%
Caledonia (Marion County): +1.89%

This trend likely reflects a growing buyer demand for affordability and space, possibly accelerated by the persistence of remote and hybrid work models. But measuring growth by percentage alone can be misleading. To understand the true financial impact, we also have to look at the absolute dollar gains.

Not all growth is equal—dollars vs. percentages tell different tales.

Understanding market movement requires looking at the data from multiple angles. This analysis reveals a powerful and counter-intuitive finding: the rate of appreciation in some smaller markets is so intense that their absolute dollar gains are outpacing those in higher-priced areas.

Consider this comparison: Knox County posted the highest percentage growth among all counties (1.58%), which translated to a respectable home value increase of $4,456 above its trend on a median home value of $282,220. However, the lower-priced market of New Plymouth (median ZHVI: 243,688) is appreciating so rapidly (**2.20%**) that its short-term dollar gain of 5,369 has surpassed that of the more expensive county. For homeowners, the dollar value is what builds equity, and this data shows that the most significant equity gains aren't always where you expect. Just as this dual perspective reveals hidden hotspots, it also brings the market's cool-down zones into sharp focus.

The data also pinpoints the market's cool-down zones.

A powerful data analysis doesn't just identify hotspots; it is equally effective at revealing where the market is cooling. This information is just as valuable, providing critical signals about shifts in local market dynamics. The data clearly flags specific areas that are trending below their recent performance.

Most notably, the largest dip in absolute dollars occurred in zip code 43202, encompassing Columbus's University District and North Campus area, where home values fell -$7,444 below the recent trend. This is a powerful insight, showing significant cooling in a typically high-demand urban neighborhood. On a percentage basis, the largest drop was seen in New Straitsville (zip code 43766) in Perry County, which fell -2.55%. For sellers in these areas, this data is a clear signal to reassess pricing strategies. For buyers, these cooling zones could represent opportunities to find a home with less competition and more room for negotiation.

What Does the Data Mean for You?

The overarching message from this deep dive into Central Ohio's real estate data is clear: to truly understand the market, you have to look beyond the headlines. Regional trends provide context, but the most actionable insights are found in the granular, local data that reveals the unique story of each county, city, and zip code.

These micro-trends—from the surprising growth in small towns to the crucial distinction between percentage and dollar gains—demonstrate that the real estate landscape is a complex mosaic of many small, distinct markets. As these patterns continue to shape the market, what hidden story might the data be telling about your own neighborhood?